Sebenarnya kita tidak boleh meramalkan bentuk apa krisis ekonomi akan berlaku terutama sekali yang berkaitan dengan komoditi.
Krisis Ekonomi berlaku apabila harga komoditi terlalu rendah atau harga komoditi terlalu tinggi?
Ketika zaman harga minyak melonjak ke tahap USD 140 setong dulu, ramai diantara kita yang berasa susah akibat kenaikan harga minyak. Tanpa disedari ianya sebenarnya rahmat bagi negara yang kaya dengan komoditi Minyak, getah, sawit.
Kini berlaku kejatuhan harga. Ada yang bersorak gembira harga minyak diturunkan malah mahu minta diturunkan lagi tanpa menyedari nasib penoreh getah.
Yang mana satu hendak digelar krisis ekonomi? semasa ia tinggi atau rendah?
Daim sudah kata "Prepare for the worst".
Tidak dapat dibayangkan bagaimana "the worst" itu.
Tetapi mari kita bayangkan juga bagaimana rupanya the worst itu, supaya kita boleh lebih bersedia. Walaupun the worst tidak semestinya berlaku tapi bersedialah sedikit.
"The worst" yang tidak mustahil.
1. Ringgit jatuh, Inflasi seperti Zimbabwe
2. Kejatuhan harga komoditi melampau atau kenaikan harga komoditi melampau.
3. Pengangguran bertambah.
4. Pekerja kilang "makan basic".
5. Maybank muflis.
6. ASB runtuh (collaspe)
7. Kilang-kilang ditutup
8. Sektor Insurans runtuh
9. Bekalan makanan terhad
10. Ramai orang kena tarik kereta atau sebaliknya Bank tidak mahu tarik kereta kerana ia akan lebih rugi.
11. Guru sekolah mogok.
12.
13.
14. (sila isi diruangan komen)
Apa lagi yang anda boleh fikirkan "the worst" itu? Sudahkah bersedia?
Cukup Rizab Bank Negara untuk mengatasinya?
Satu lagi persoalan yang saya sering fikirkan. Atas sandaran apakah Bank Negara memberi Jaminan pendeposit bank boleh dijamin sehingga 2010?
Berbanding singapura, Mereka telah asingkan USD 101 bilion.
SINGAPORE (AFP) – Singapore on Thursday set aside 150 billion dollars (101 billion US) to guarantee all bank deposits in the city-state until the end of 2010, but insisted the banking system here remains sound.
2 hari lepas aku baru jer update pasal ekonomi dunia. Tapi aku takde idea plak nak ngisi no 12 dan 13 tu.
BalasPadamMengapa?
Sebab bila aku nak tulis no 12 pasal cikgu mogok seperti dalam blog aku ni (http://www.masterloan.biz/2008/10/18/money-and-economy-over-pay-rises/),
tapi ko dah tulisnya di nombor 11.
Aku nak tulis no 13 pasal daruratnya ekonomi sehingga tahun 2010 seperti kat blog aku (http://www.businessbreaker.com/2008/10/18/economy-shrinking-warning-that-economy-will-shrink-until-2010/), tapi ko dah simpulkannya pulak sebagai satu soalan di akhir artikel ini.
Dah tu, aku nak letak apa lagi?
Ciiit... wahahaha.
Let me be the first to tell you that Singapore is not a perfect society. But in Malaysia, we are citizens but still treated like second class citizens, right!
BalasPadamLet me be honest with you. I am better off in Singapore as a PR than as a Malaysian. In the 10 years I am in Singapore, nobody has told me to get lost and I have never felt like a second class citizen despite being a PR. In Malaysia, you know the story.
I feel so let down to know that Singapore treats us better than our own country. What a shame! Ask any other Malaysians living in Singapore and they will tell you the same.
If I am given a choice to serve in the army of Singapore or my own country Malaysia, I would have no problem choosing Singapore despite you claming it is unfair (and you maybe right too).
Why? Do you think the Malaysia government cares for me to putting my life on the line for the country? Let us be honest.
Like I said, Singapore is not perfect, but it is anytime better than living in Malaysia.
While Singapore government is sincere and doing all the right things, saying all the right things, in contrast, we can't say the same about Malaysia government, filled with hypocrites who only sing song, nice racial harmony song on certain occasions, the once in a year Merdeka speech, in general elections vote-fishing speeches, that is all.
And talks are cheaper than bull shit, or dinosaur shit for sure. Cause on many other occasions, during Umno assembly, meetings in kampung etc, we see the apes come out of their cages, instigating hatred, this is our land, waving keris, we are the tuan, we deserve this and that, we need to be strong so that other races won't get to take advantage of our weaknesses, blah blah blah……….no more Chinese schools, no more funding, blah blah blah. Same old shit from the same old clan of monkeys.
Open your eyes, go and live in Singapore for a few years, then you will feel differently perhaps.
On the surface, Singapore government is doing everything right to forge racial harmony, that is important, because perception is everything.
In Malaysia, we have all the opposite. That is the difference. Big difference. Big mama difference. Huge difference.
When I first lived in Singapore, I had the mentality of a "Malaysian".
Guess what? I now don't think like that. Every time, you hear a speech given by the Singapore prime minister, you know he is speaking from his heart and that matters.
I am a very skeptical person and it is very hard to buy me over unless you are speaking the truth. Do you know the government tells all their citizens in their national day rally speech to welcome us foreigners?
I personally admire the Singapore government, they actually walk the talk, really! I can see this with my own eyes! Nothing is more convincing than this. As for our Malaysia politicians, all they care is their bloody self (MCA, MIC, Umno) and their hoodlums.
The large publics of Chinese, Indians and Malays have to fend for ourselves. Why should I go back to Malaysia if I believe I have a better life in Singapore! I don't want my kids to grow up in an environment where they are told there is a distinction between malays and non-malays. Think about this!
This is my personal answer. The 10 years of being happy in Singapore is nowhere compared to the 30 years of rubbish I have got from Malaysia as a non-malay.
I will pass you my Malaysian passport next year (hope you are happy now).
Yup right, what an irony, I am willing to die for Singapore being a PR and not for Malaysia being a citizen. That shows much we feel we belonged in Malaysia.
In 1994, I tried to apply a scholarship in Malaysia but I couldn't get it due to the impartial system albeit I desperate for a scholarship as I was very poor. I tried to re-appeal but to no avail.
Fortunately, Singapore had offered me a scholarship and I was in fact forced to leave Malaysia no matter how reluctant I was.
Having stayed in Singapore for 10 years now. I salute the Singapore government for its efficiency. Whatever promises they make to the citizens, all will be materialised. This country practises meritocracy and if you capable and work hard, you will definitely be able to hold high post regardless of race.
I agree that Singapore is not a perfect country but it treats everyone in Singapore fairly whereby there is no discrimination at all.
On the contrary, Malaysia marginalises the non-malays which ultimately will have great impact on itself. I believe eventually Malaysia will lose (already lost) the competitive edge in which all the capable and smart non-malays will leave to other countries.
It is no doubt our Malaysia education system is getting down the drain as almost all the key posts are filled with all the cronies who are incapable and apple polisher. Besides, lots of our ministers act like an uncivilised person and speak with no substance.
We have already suffered a high level of brain drain - a lot of Malaysians have left for greener pastures in Australia, Singapore etc. Some of these are my friends and they are very happy where they are.
These are people whom others recognized as huge contributors not only to the company they are working with, but the country as well.
Imagine how great Malaysia would have been, if these people are working in Malaysia, and contributing to the growth here.
A lot of non-malays are feeling the pinch of staying in this Malaysia country, especially when our politicians are becoming more confident about being louder and vocal at being racist to win more votes.
But I have heard very few Singaporeans saying they would prefer Malaysia. I know - I was there for more about 10 years.
aik. komen aston macam ulasan spam. sbb takde kaitan ngan tajuk.
BalasPadamsebol, aku ingat nak menang election di Malaysia ni senang je.
masa harga barang mahal sangat, kemukakan idea sosialis. membantu rakyat, subsidi sana sini dsb.
tapi masa harga barang murah / ekonomi tak berjalan / ekonomi terlalu merudum kemukakan idea kapitalis. membantu nation growth.
wa ingat boleh konfirm menang lah. hehe
Pakdi
http://www.pakdi.my
ehh..ehhh..kenapa pulak cikgu nak mogok? Ekonomi merudum ke apa ke, gaji gomen tetap jalan kan? (ni lah ayat yg mak aku dok screw kat otak aku supaya aku keje gomen)
BalasPadamPakdi:
BalasPadamcatatan aku ada singapura, dia tulis pasal singapura, kerana itu aku tak padam.
ada lagi 2 komen yg kena padam.
Adalah lebih baik ahli politik berbincang soal ekonomi berbanding sebelum ini hanya BN guna 100% idea pegawai kerajaan.
aku rasa kalau lepas ni pegawai kerajaan nasihatkan ahli politik BN supaya kaji semula, maka dia kaji la belanjawan itu.
Sherinna:
BalasPadamAndaikata inflasi berlaku sperti zimbabwe, gaji guru mengecil.
mungkin kena mogok dulu baru dapat naik gaji.
en sebol,
BalasPadamsaya baru hendak menanyakan kenapa bank negara memberi jaminan sehingga 2010 duit pendeposit akan selamat?
1. kenapa bnm buat kenyataan sedemikian?
2. lepas tahun 2010 apa akan jadi?
3. lepas tahun 2010, adakah tiada bank lagi?
harap en sebol dpt beri penerangan. maybe di ruangan komen ini, ataupun di satu post yang berlainan.
terima kasih,
yang kurang arif ttg ekonomi,
sicksand
Aku tidak yakin dengan BNM, ramalan macam ada agenda politik. Memang aku setuju, prepare for the worst! Duit simpanan kita yang ribu ribu di dalam bank akan mengecil nilai, simpanan KWSP jatuh nilai........gaji kita terasa kurang (harga barang mahal)...ini bukan main main. Kalau dengan cakap ahli politik memang kita sentiasa disedapkan hati dengan ayat ayat feel good......
BalasPadamBro sebol, saya setuju memang satu malaysia suda tahu dunia sedang diambang krisis kegawatan, dan rakyat Malaysia tidak dapat mengelakkan diri daripada kerasahan daripada situasi ini.Tapi dalam keadaan genting seperti ini,saya menyokong penuh pendirian BNM, dan daripada apa yang saya dengar mereka berusha keras monitor ekonomi di Malaysia secara menyeluruh sekali badan kewangan di Malaysia terutama insititusi perbankan.Apa yang kita buat,memaki hamun mereka sesuka hati..
BalasPadamJangan kerana Central Bank Singapore mengumukakan resolusi mereka jamin depositor di sana,kita terlalu bangga akan kehebatan mereka,wargh kenapalah Malaysia tidak sehebat Singapore.
Kenapa saya cakap macam ini ialah kerana tanyalah mana2 trader didalam market,apakah punca kegawatan global ini,jawatan yang akan diberikan ialah satu dan pendek saja, tak banyak, apa dia, cubelah teka?? Adakah subprime,adakah kerana ketamakan sistem perdaganan bebas,atau Fanae dan Freddie tidak segagah Cagamas di Malaysia,mungkin kenaikan inflasi dunia,atau mungkin sbb Iran sudah menjual minyak dengar EURO bukan lagi USD ?? Yer,sumer jawapan di atas adalah tepat, tapi so what ? Fed nak keluarkan trilion USD aper untuk bail out dan injek kapital kepada bank2 yang bankrup di US,tak dapat kutip,die cetak jerlah baru, setel lah problem.Pasti?Jawapannya ialah belum tentu,kenape,kerana injeklah berapa trilion pun dalam market,selagi "confidence",atau Bahasa Melayunye "keyakinan" orang ramai dan pelabur terhadap institusi perbankan tidak dikembalikan,jangan harap ekonomi dapat pulih seperti sedia kala.Sebagai contoh,Lehman Bank telah mendapat capital baru,jadi die bleh loankan duit kluar sekali lagi,yeye dapat kutip interest kow-kow balik,tapi kalau semua duit keluar buat loan,mana duit masuknyer,adakah depositor berani nak letak duit dekat Lehman balik lagi,Kalau semua taknak letak duit dekat Lehman Bank mane nak cari likuiditi?? Issue bond,commercial paper? sedangkan Bond2 lamer pun tersimpan dalam laci kerana tiada siapa ingin beli..
Notes untuk semua : Lehman Bank Bankrup bukan kerana hilang aset,tetapi kerana terlalu tamak mengutip pelbagai aset seperti bond,commercial paper,PDS, dan akhirnya satu pun tidak dapat dijual balik untuk menjana cash,jadi likuiditi hancur.Siapa blaja akaun taulah bila liabiliti banyak,asset tak likuid memang working capital outla.
Jadi sebenanya apa yang Central Bank seluruh dunia buat hanyalah bermain dengan psikologi supaya rakyat terus menyimpan dalam bank,kononnya Cental Bank beri jaminan, Ia kita jamin duit yang diletak dalam Bank selamat dari segala bencana,based on what,mungkin dah menyimpan sedikit kot dari sekarang seolah2 macamlah selama ni Central Bank tak pernah ada Reserve.
Apa yang saya cube cakap ialah Psikologi memang mudah untuk menyuntik keyakinan,tetapi bagaimanakah kalau psikologi disalah tafsir,sebagai contoh,Eh, kenapa yer Gabenor Zetty tetiber je umumkan die jamin depositor di Malaysia,lain macam jer bunyinyer bawak kluala duit kita dari bank,wakakakka rasa-rasanya bleh jadi camni tak ?? biaselah rakyat Malaysia ini.Kesimpulannya,iyer dunia termasuk Malaysia sedang diambang bahaya,sekarang ni bukan masa masing2 nak tunjuk2 hero,BNM tak boleh pakai la, Bank tamak laa, Ringgit tak tambat laa, tetapi sekarang ni masa untuk rakyat Malaysia bersatu,berusha/bekerja kuat,bayarlah pinjaman2 kita kepada bank,jangan meminjam kalau tidak mampu,dan akhir sekali kita tidak perlu hidup terlalu mengharapkan orang untuk govern/jaga kita,kalau boleh diharap takper,tapi kalau dah dalam keadaan genting ni laa sekor2 nak berebut kuasa..takperla,terima kasih jerla..
mmg laa..dulu mase ekonomi naik sume org berebut keje ngn company..gaji ribu ribuan plus bonus lagik.
BalasPadamsanggup resigned keje ngn gomen muahaha..
langit bukan selalu cerah!
ngape cikgu nak mogok?? keje kerana ALLAH bkn nak glemer atau nak mewah..lain laa ade yg ukur baju dibdn org lain :p
Salam~
BalasPadamSaya percaya yang keruntuhan ekonomi kapitalis kali ini adalah rentetan dari kejatuhan ekonomi sosialis dan komunis pada dekad awal 90an. Ini menandakan yang sistem-sistem ciptaan manusia sudah tidak mampu untuk memberi kemanfaatan secara panjang dan berkekalan kepada manusia sejagat.
Bukan setakat sistem ekonomi ciptaan manusia sudah tidak lagi dipercayai dan diyakini, bahkan dalam apa bidang sekalipun termasuk jugalah sistem politik, kenegaraan dan antarabangsa. Manusia sejagat akan dapat memahami bahawa sistem-sistem ciptaan manusia sudah tidak lagi mampan dan viable untuk kesejahteraan spesis manusia secara global. Negara-negara dalam dunia sudah tidak mampu lagi untuk hidup secara 'nafsu nafsi' dan secara sendirian. Dunia akan bercakap soal globalisasi dan yang isu yang paling penting, siapa pula yang akan mengepalai dan memimpin pentadbiran dunia yang global ini. Pemimpin yang bersikap adil dan saksama kepada semua unit manusia tidak kira suku kaum, tidak kira para bilionawan berkulit putih di negara-negara barat atau puak Masai yang membela lembu-lembu di Kenya, Afrika atau pemburu singa laut Eskimo di Artik. Dunia sedang menantikan kemunculan pemimpin penyelamat dunia yang dilantik dan dimandatkan oleh maha pencipta alam ini.
Narrated by Abdullah ibn Mas'ud in which the Prophet said: "Even if a (single) day is left in (the life of) the world, Allah will lengthen that day to send a person of my House whose name will be like my name and whose Kuniyah will be similar to mine. He will fill the world with justice and equity just as it was previously full of injustice and oppression." (Abu Daud, Tabarani, Ibn Hiibban, Hakim, Ibn Maja, Abu Na'im, Ibn Asakir, etc.)
Semoga Allah mempercepatkan kemunculan Sang Penyelamat dunia.
setuju ngan anyymous
BalasPadamnasib baik aku x da wat loan...cian bank negara...:) sapa yang ada hutang tu p la bayar nun...disinunn....
BalasPadam